May 4, 2023

What happens when the population of the world’s largest country shrinks drastically?

Reeling in the aftershock of the COVID-19 pandemic, China is battling an urgent population crisis. Rising mortality rates are coupled with a decline in fertility rates, causing the latter to fall dismally below replacement value.

In ‘INSIGHT’ (Channel NewsAsia, April 2023), Professor Jean Yeung (NUS Sociology, CFPR, & Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine) provides her expert opinion on the pressing matter of China’s shrinking population and its demographic consequences. She broadly highlights that China’s population decline will affect its economy, innovation, and the overall energy of the Chinese population.

The programme deftly discusses issues pertaining to foreign and rural migration to China’s urban centres. Noting the state’s draconian COVID-19 measures as a key repellent of highly educated foreign labour, the discussion pivots to understanding the role and place of rural migrants into city centres.

Beholden by the limiting hukou system, rural migrants are subject to differentiated accesses to various public services, including those relating to healthcare and education. Looking positively on the state’s promises of hukou reforms, Prof. Yeung believes that, if abolished, economic efficiency would increase, rural migrants could move freely, and would be incentivised to work harder.

Prof. Yeung also comments on the tangping (which literally means to ‘lie down’) phenomenon, wherein Chinese youth opt out of the rat race and refuse to partake in previously socially heralded milestones such as raising children. This is a manifestation of youth apathy and disillusionment towards material success that lends itself to decreasing fertility rates and young people’s disinclination towards having children.

The question of raising the retirement age has also come to the fore. While countries around the world have increased their retirement ages in response to their ageing populations, China’s retirement age has remained the same for over 40 years. Prof. Yeung notes that although raising the retirement age would ensure the workforce is numerically sustained, the opposition to this proposal among people who are retiring. She remarks that reforming the retirement age should be a gradual process that allows for flexibility in citizens’ decision-making processes.

Finally, the program touches on the Chinese government’s investments in robotics to automate their labour force. Prof. Yeung states that China will reap the benefit of this investment in the near future, especially given the inevitability and irreversible nature of its demographic decline.

Watch the documentary episode here: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/watch/insight-2023-2024/chinas-shrinking-population-3415161