{"id":35685,"date":"2026-07-30T17:27:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T09:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fass.nus.edu.sg\/srn\/?p=35685"},"modified":"2026-01-14T11:34:40","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T03:34:40","slug":"macroeconomy-without-fire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fass.nus.edu.sg\/srn\/2026\/07\/30\/macroeconomy-without-fire\/","title":{"rendered":"Macroeconomy Without FIRE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In\u00a0\u2018Macroeconomy Without FIRE\u2019,\u00a0which was awarded a\u00a0Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 2 grant\u00a0from\u00a02025\u20132029,\u00a0Assistant Professor\u00a0Donghai Zhang\u00a0(NUS Economics)\u00a0asks a deceptively simple question:\u00a0do businesses really understand the economy as well as economists assume they do?<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For decades, most economic models have been built on the idea of \u201cfull-information rational expectations\u201d\u2014the assumption that all firms, whether a multinational corporation or a neighbourhood bakery, have a clear and\u00a0accurate\u00a0picture of how the economy works. Zhang argues that this assumption does not reflect reality. More importantly, it fits Singapore particularly poorly, given the economy\u2019s mix of large global firms and a wide base of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs with\u00a0very different\u00a0access to information).<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The project starts from an everyday observation: firms do not see everything that is happening in the economy. Many businesses respond to headline signals such as\u00a0inflation but\u00a0struggle to interpret what those signals mean for jobs, wages, and future demand. Zhang\u2019s research shows that firms often react too strongly to news about rising prices, while reacting too weakly to\u00a0changes\u00a0in employment. This suggests that many businesses misunderstand the relationship between inflation and economic activity\u2014a relationship that lies at the heart of monetary policy.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This matters for Singapore because managing inflation expectations is central to how the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stabilises the economy. If firms misread inflation signals or misunderstand where price pressures come from\u2014especially in a small, open economy heavily exposed to global supply shocks\u2014policy messages may not land as intended. Inflation can then persist longer, and economic adjustments can become more uneven across sectors.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A key insight of the project is that these misunderstandings are not simply due to carelessness or poor judgement. Instead, they reflect the limits of attention and information. Large firms can afford teams of analysts, consultants, and forecasting tools. Smaller firms cannot. As a result, businesses differ systematically in how closely they follow economic developments and how they respond to policy signals.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Zhang\u2019s research shows that these differences matter not just for individual firms, but for the\u00a0general\u00a0economy. When smaller firms are slow to respond to changing conditions, their behaviour can influence larger firms as well\u2014through competition, pricing, and supply chains. Even well-informed firms may hesitate to adjust prices or investment if they know their competitors are\u00a0lagging. In this way, gaps in information can spread across the economy.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Beyond its academic contribution,\u00a0Macroeconomy Without FIRE\u00a0speaks directly to Singapore\u2019s policy challenges. It suggests that effective economic management depends not only on sound policy design, but also on how clearly policies are understood by\u00a0different types\u00a0of firms. Models that assume perfect understanding may overlook why policies sometimes work more slowly\u2014or unevenly\u2014than expected.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Overall, this project positions Singapore as a place where new ways of thinking about the economy can\u00a0emerge\u2014ones that better reflect how real businesses\u00a0operate\u00a0under uncertainty. By grounding macroeconomic theory in everyday limits on information and attention, Zhang\u2019s\u00a0work offers a more realistic foundation for understanding inflation, business behaviour, and economic stability in Singapore.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_35686\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-35686\" style=\"width: 2121px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-35686\" src=\"https:\/\/fass.nus.edu.sg\/srn\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/15\/2026\/01\/iStock-1422731163.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2121\" height=\"1414\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-35686\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo: iStock\/anon-tae<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In\u00a0\u2018Macroeconomy Without FIRE\u2019,\u00a0which was awarded a\u00a0Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 2 grant\u00a0from\u00a02025\u20132029,\u00a0Assistant Professor\u00a0Donghai Zhang\u00a0(NUS Economics)\u00a0asks a deceptively simple question:\u00a0do businesses really understand the economy as well as economists assume they do?\u00a0 For decades, most economic models have been built on the idea of \u201cfull-information rational expectations\u201d\u2014the assumption that all firms, whether a multinational [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":357,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4540,4606,4609,4604],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-research","category-singapore-research-nexus","category-visible"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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