Quantitative Public Policy Analysis I

Professor Cautrès is an excellent teacher, extremely good at explaining even the most difficult concepts, and his enthusiasm is contagious. — participant from India

Whether you think they should or they should not, numbers, data, and quantitative methods matter to today's public policy and policy analysis. Policymakers and administrators alike use numbers to support their (normative) arguments on what policies should be implemented, whether governments should or should not provide certain services, or whether it is the right time to engage in policy reform. At the same time, policy analysts use data and wide variety of quantitative methods to predict and evaluate the success or failure of new policies and to engage in evidence-based research on the impact of past policy interventions.

This course is the first part in a two-course sequence (cf. Quantitative Public Policy II). It is designed to provide participants with the basic skills needed to engage with quantitative policy reports and publications, familiarizes them with fundamental quantitative methods, and teaches them how to use some of the statistical tools required for a successful career in today's public policy world.

Dates

This one-week, 17.5-hour course runs Monday-Friday, July 3-7, 2023. The course is scheduled for 9:00 am-12:30 pm.

Classroom Location

Faculty of Arts and Social Science, AS1 03-03

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Instructor

Bruno Cautrès, Sciences Po Paris

Detailed Description

This first course in the two-course Quantitative Public Policy Analysis sequence (cf. Quantitative Public Policy II) introduces participants to the major concepts and tools used by public policy specialists for causal reasoning and the quantitative evaluation of policies. Among the concepts covered by the course are causal inference and statistical inference, counterfactuals, potential outcomes, treatment effects, and before-after effects. Participants learn how statistical methods can be used to develop a formal framework for quasi-experimental reasoning and to address major public policy questions related to such diverse issues as education, public health, and social policies.

The course focuses on the role of quantitative methods in public policy analysis and evaluation and theoretical considerations behind such issues as causality, the Rubin causal model, internal and external validity, observations and experiments, and correlation and causality.

Participants will also learn the fundamentals of the linear regression model and how to use regression to test the effect of such 'treatments' as a change in policy or exposure to political reform. We study a variety of techniques within the multiple regression framework – dummy variables, interaction effects, the Chow test for subgroups and structural breaks – that allows us to use regression for treated and control group comparisons. Finally, the basics of discontinuity analysis is introduced as studying the effects of public policy is basically studying the ‘discontinuity’ between before/after a policy shift. This introduction will prepare participants for the more in-depth discussion of regression discontinuity design techniques in Quantitative Public Policy II. On completion of the course, participants will have a clear understanding of the relationship between statistical models (like the classic linear regression model) and the comparison of treatment and control groups to identify and measure treatment effects.

The course offers many practical applications and opportunities to practice the analysis and evaluation of public policies with the popular statistical software Stata.

Prerequisites

There are no formal prerequisites for this course. Basic knowledge of descriptive statistics and a background in the use of the statistical software Stata would be helpful (cf. Applied Data Analysis), but are not required.

Requirements

Participants are expected to have access to an internet-connected computer. Access to data, temporary licenses for the course software, and installation support will be provided by the Methods School.

Core Readings

Will be provided.