August 30, 2026

Singapore’s tropical climate, exacerbated by the growing effects of climate change, has seen its annual mean temperature rise by 0.24°C per decade between 1984 and 2022. With existing research highlighting the substantial impacts of ambient heat on public health and individual productivity, Dr Li Hongyan (NUS Energy Studies Institute), Associate Professor Liu Haoming, Associate Professor Alberto Salvo, and Rhita Simorangkir (all NUS Economics) have extended this body of work to examine human capital accumulation in a context where one might anticipate a degree of resilience against heat shocks — specifically, a nation with widespread air conditioning. Their article, ‘Heat Impacts College Student Grades Even in Rich Singapore’ (Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2025), reveals that ambient heat continues to influence academic outcomes despite Singapore’s advanced infrastructure and wealth.

The researchers analysed academic performance, housing data, and demographic characteristics for 126,000 undergraduates from 2005 to 2019. This rich dataset facilitated an investigation into how heat during extended learning periods impacts university students’ academic performance and whether patterns in the data — such as access to air conditioning in students’ residences or their country of origin — can inform adaptation policies.

They found that students’ learning, as measured by semester-long course grades, was significantly impaired during hotter-than-average semesters compared to cooler ones. The primary metric used was the daily maximum heat index, which accounts for both ambient temperature and relative humidity. Researchers compared the proportion of hot days (those exceeding 38°C on the index) to cool days within each semester. They discovered that increasing the proportion of hot days from 0 to 1 in a semester reduced semester-long course marks for the overall undergraduate population by approximately 2 points out of 100. This occurred despite most students being acclimatised locals living in air-conditioned homes, highlighting the limits of acclimatisation.

Foreign students from temperate regions, such as China, experienced a more pronounced negative impact from heat, especially during their initial years of study. However, this effect diminished over time, suggesting gradual acclimatisation to the tropical climate. Local students from low-income neighbourhoods, who have less access to cooling technologies at home, appeared slightly more vulnerable during hotter semesters, though this effect was not statistically significant. It is possible that low-income undergraduates are less sensitive to heat or mitigate its effects through strategies like utilising air-conditioned study spaces.

The article concludes that scaling up cooling infrastructure in spaces occupied by large groups, such as university study areas, can yield substantial productivity benefits. Investments in efficient technologies, such as district cooling systems, could also offer significant returns by enhancing productivity and mitigating health-related damages.

Read the article here.