Seminars

The Emergence of Gray Divorce in Japan: A Data Linkage Approach

Scholarship in family sociology and population sciences has paid increasingly closer attention to the rise in “gray divorce” (divorce among those aged 50 years or over), or gray divorce revolution, with important implications for wellbeing among older adults. Existing studies are mostly based on the US and Western Europe, where cohorts exposed to elevated divorce risks in younger ages are the critical mass driving the revolution. In this study, we offer a nuanced account of this trend by examining the case of Japan, a non-Western context characterized by rising divorce rates over time. Using population census and divorce records in vital statistics data, we estimate gender-, age-, and education-specific divorce rates, revealing three key findings. First, unlike evidence provided by prior studies, divorce rates began increasing across multiple birth cohorts, including among older adults. Second, although gray divorce rates remain lower than those in the United States, they have increased nearly fourfold from 1990 to 2020—more rapidly than has been reported in other countries. Third, results from a novel method matching individuals in population census and divorce records matching indicate that the increase in gray divorce rates is particularly evident among couples involving highly educated women. We discuss plausible mechanisms underlying the period-level rise in divorce and educational differences in gray divorce to provide updated insights into cross-national variation in divorce revolution patterns.

Date: October 2, 2026

Time: 12:00 - 1:30PM

Venue: NUS Kent Ridge Campus

Speaker

Sociology Dept - Princeton University

Presidential Assistant Professor Fumiya Uchikoshi

Singapore Management University

Fumiya Uchikoshi is Presidential Assistant Professor of Sociology at Singapore Management University. Until recently, he was an Academy Scholar (stipendiary postdoctoral fellow) at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. He received his BA from the University of Tokyo and his MA and PhD in Sociology from Princeton University, along with a graduate certificate in Demography. His research focuses on family demography and social stratification. His ongoing projects examine (1) the causes and consequences of demographic change in East Asia, (2) the relationship between the diversification of higher education and social stratification, and (3) family formation among Asian Americans.

Chairperson

A/P Zheng Mu

CFPR Co-Director, Associate Professor Sociology & Anthropology

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