January 23, 2026

According to the Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Singapore could face increasingly extreme weather conditions, with more frequent scorching days, prolonged dry spells, and temperatures potentially rising by up to 5 degrees Celsius by 2100. These changes, driven by global climate change, will heighten the risks of heat stress, a condition where excessive heat overwhelms the body’s ability to regulate itself. In densely built-up environments like Singapore, the canopy-layer urban heat island (CL-UHI) effect, caused by differences in land surface characteristics between urban and surrounding rural areas, intensifies temperature variability across the city. 

In ‘Application of a Semi-Empirical Approach to Map Maximum Urban Heat Island Intensity in Singapore’ (Sustainability, 2023), Beatriz Sanchez (Research Center for Energy, Environment and Technology, Spain), Professor Matthias Roth (NUS Geography), Pratiman Patel (NUS Geography), and Andrés Simón-Moral (TECHNALIA, Spain) developed a semi-empirical approach to model and map daily maximum urban heat island intensities in Singapore. Using over three years of observational temperature data from 26 sites around Singapore, the researchers first tested an existing empirical equation from previous research. While errors were reasonably low, the model did not capture patterns as well in Singapore compared to the other locations the original model was developed for.  

To address this, the researchers derived their own equation using variables known to influence urban heat islands, such as land cover, building height, and meteorological conditions. Evaluation showed that their customised equation modelled daily maximum CL-UHI intensities reasonably well under different weather scenarios in Singapore, with the most intense heat islands occurring in highly developed central areas as expected. The resulting maps from the study can pinpoint vulnerable areas in need of cooling strategies to alleviate heat stress, a crucial challenge for an equatorial city like Singapore. 

Empirically tailored models like this offer an efficient way to estimate heat exposure and guide local adaptation efforts. This approach could also be valuable for other rapidly urbanising tropical regions experiencing rising temperatures due to global warming. With further refinements, similar techniques applied globally could promote climate-resilient urban development as cities increasingly face the impacts of climate change.

Read the article here.