April 23, 2026

Singapore, as a small city-state, adopts a deliberate hedging strategy in its foreign policy, maintaining strong ties with both the United States and China while avoiding alignment with either. This approach allows it to maximise economic and strategic benefits while mitigating risks in the context of intensifying US-China rivalry. Although this stance is often viewed as a pragmatic response to external survival imperatives, ‘The Domestic Determinants of Hedging in Singapore’s Foreign Policy’ (Contemporary Southeast Asia, 2024) by Associate Professor Terence Lee (formerly NUS Political Science) argues that domestic considerations also play a critical role. Specifically, A/P Lee highlights how the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) leverages this foreign policy to reinforce its political legitimacy and maintain dominance within Singapore’s political landscape.

A/P Lee asserts that the PAP’s political legitimacy is reinforced through ‘specific’ and ‘diffuse’ support mechanisms. Specific support stems from public approval of the PAP’s policies and governance, exchanged transactionally for tangible benefits delivered to citizens. This is exemplified by Singapore’s robust economic relationships with China and the US, its largest and third-largest trading partners, respectively. These ties are facilitated by bilateral free trade agreements and significant foreign direct investments, such as the China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park. Chinese companies like Shein have also chosen Singapore as their global headquarters, while Mainland Chinese tourists and investors have contributed significantly to the economy as well, purchasing private properties and accounting for approximately 20% of all international arrivals before the COVID-19 pandemic. These economic linkages have bolstered Singapore’s financial stability and strong economic position.

Additionally, Singapore’s defence capabilities, bolstered by its strategic security ties with the US, further reinforce specific support. Bilateral military exercises and adherence to US-led security frameworks underscore mutual trust, while America’s security commitments in the Indo-Pacific region contribute to Singapore’s stability. Cooperative ties with China also generate political support domestically, particularly among ethnic Chinese Singaporeans and business stakeholders who benefit from favourable relations. Together, these economic and defence advantages translate into tangible benefits that Singapore citizens value.

In contrast, diffuse support refers to generalised public backing rooted in citizens’ alignment with the government’s principles. The PAP fosters this by emphasising national interests and the need to protect Singapore’s autonomy and sovereignty. Through speeches made by key political officeholders in Parliament and during events like the National Day Rally, the PAP highlights its competence in managing external challenges to Singaporeans, showcasing its effective foreign policy and reinforcing trust in its leadership.

Together, these concepts demonstrate how Singapore’s cooperative ties with both the US and China enhance its performance legitimacy, while its assertive foreign policy, particularly towards China, fosters a rally-around-the-flag effect that strengthens public support. A/P Lee concludes that even with the transition to the next generation of PAP leadership under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, hedging, or being equidistant, will likely continue as Singapore’s guiding foreign policy stance in the near future.

Read the article here.