TRADE: When Work is Threatened: Lifelong Education and Occupation Choice; Dr Daisuke Adachi (Aarhus University)

Abstract

We study the role of adult apprenticeship in occupation choice using matched Danish adult and continuing education register and employer-employee data. A dynamic difference-in-difference reveals that manufacturing workers enrolled in apprenticeships related to business service (BS) occupations exhibit a 0.9-3.1 percentage point higher probability of transitioning to BS occupations in 1-8 years, compared to non-participants. We propose and estimate a life-cycle model of occupation and program choices that yields a logit conditional choice probability with flexible elasticities of the program choice. The estimated program take-up elasticity is lower than that of occupation choice, suggesting a relative insensitivity of individuals to the program value. A counterfactual wage subsidy policy conditional on BS-related program take-up facilitates switches from traditional manufacturing jobs to BS occupations, underscoring the potential benefits of adult training policies to address the recent changes in labor markets, such as structural changes and automation.