An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment:Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan; Stefano Caria (University of Warwick)

Abstract

We introduce an adaptive targeted treatment assignment methodology for field ex-periments. Our Tempered Thompson Algorithm balances the goals of maximizingthe precision of treatment effect estimates and maximizing the welfare of experi-mental participants. A hierarchical Bayesian model allows us to adaptively targettreatments. We implement our methodology in Jordan, testing policies to help Syr-ian refugees and local jobseekers to find work. The immediate employment impactsof a small cash grant, information and psychological support are small, but target-ing raises employment by 1 percentage-point (20%). After four months, cash has asizable effect on employment and earnings of Syrians.

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