MACRO: Distributional Dynamics; Professor Christian Bayer (University of Bonn)

Abstract

We develop a new method for deriving high-frequency synthetic distributions of consumption, income, and wealth. Modern theories of macroeconomic dynamics identify the joint distribution of consumption, income, and wealth as a key determinant of aggregate dynamics. Our novel method allows us to study their distributional dynamics over time. The method can incorporate different microdata sources, regardless of their frequency and coverage of variables, to generate high-frequency synthetic distributional data. We extend existing methods by allowing for more flexible data inputs. The core of the method is to treat the distributional data as a time series of functions that follow a state-space model, which we estimate using Bayesian techniques. We show that the novel method provides the high-frequency distributional data needed to better understand the dynamics of consumption and its distribution over the business cycle.

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