Associate Professor Ja Ian Chong (NUS Political Science) explains, in The Diplomat, why support for Trump among Taiwanese and Hong Kongers is both unsurprising and misguided. He notes that citizens of Hong Kong and Taiwan view Republicans as strong on China and democrats as the opposite. Along with many other examples, the Trump administration-led trade war, its efforts against Chinese technology companies ByteDance, ZTE, and Huawei, and sales of arms to Taiwan bolster this line of thinking.

Historically, Republican presidents have been seen as tougher on China. The Reagan and George W. Bush administrations verbally and materially supported Taiwan, while the Carter administration de-recognized Taipei and Presidents Clinton and Obama have been characterized as weak on China. A/P Chong points out, however, that policy towards China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong has varied “across and even within” US administrations. Democrats have exhibited toughness toward China, and Republicans have been accommodating to it. Indeed, it was Nixon who visited Beijing to build ties, and Carter who kicked off arms sales to Taiwan.

A/P Chong emphasizes that America’s policies toward China are more influenced by larger structural trends than who its chief executive is and what political party runs the country’s executive branch. In fact, there has lately been bipartisan support for standing up to the PRC, supporting Taiwan, and democracy in Hong Kong. He also notes that US policy is affected by actions taken by administrations in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China. For instance, when the Hong Kong police carried out violent crackdowns on pro-democracy protestors, it caused the US to view the Xi administration and Hong Kong’s leadership under Carrie Lam more negatively.

A/P Chong does not expect there to be a major change in US-China policy under the Biden administration, especially because Republicans are likely to continue to control the senate for the next two years. Additionally, policies in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are unlikely to change. Thus, the only differences to expect in the incoming presidential administration’s approach to China are strategic and tactical.

Read ‘Support for Trump in Hong Kong and Taiwan Is Unsurprising (But Misguided)’ in The Diplomat, here.